The Hidden Game of Football: A Revolutionary Approach to the Game and Its Statistics
by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn foreword by Aaron Schatz
University of Chicago Press, 2023 Paper: 978-0-226-82586-1 | eISBN: 978-0-226-82587-8 Library of Congress Classification GV951.C48 2023 Dewey Decimal Classification 796.3320973
ABOUT THIS BOOK | AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY | REVIEWS | TOC | REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE
ABOUT THIS BOOK The 1988 cult classic behind football’s data analytics revolution, now back in print with a new foreword and preface.
Data analytics have revolutionized football. With play sheets informed by advanced statistical analysis, today’s coaches pass more, kick less, and go for more two-point or fourth-down conversions than ever before. In 1988, sportswriters Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn proposed just this style of play in The Hidden Game of Football, but at the time baffled readers scoffed at such a heartless approach to the game. Football was the ultimate team sport and unlike baseball could not be reduced to pure probabilities. Nevertheless, the book developed a cult following among analysts who, inspired by its unorthodox methods, went on to develop the core metrics of football analytics used today: win probability, expected points, QBR, and more. With a new preface by Thorn and Palmer and a new foreword by Football Outsiders’s Aaron Schatz, The Hidden Game of Football remains an essential resource for armchair coaches, fantasy managers, and fans of all stripes.
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Bob Carroll (1936–2009) was founder and executive director of the Professional Football Researchers Association and the author of more than twenty books, including When the Grass Was Real: Unitas, Brown, Lombardi, Sayers, Butkus, Namath, and All the Rest: The Best Ten Years of Pro Football. Pete Palmer is a statistician, baseball analyst, and former consultant to Sports Information Center. John Thorn has been the official historian for Major League Baseball since 2011. Together Thorn and Palmer were lead authors of The Hidden Game of Baseball: A Revolutionary Approach to Baseball and Its Statistics, also published by the University of Chicago Press.
REVIEWS
"The book that started it all. A visionary approach to football two decades ahead of its time.”
— Brian Burke, ESPN sports data scientist, creator of expected points added, win probability, win rates
"Everyone who reads this seminal classic will see the game differently. The concepts are as important for football coaching and scouting veterans as they are for aspiring analysts."
— Patrick Ward & Brian Eayrs, Seattle Seahawks research and analytics
"Before this book, zero teams made the ‘correct’ choice to go for it on fourth down most of the time. Now, roughly half the league does. Football’s significant shift toward analytics and the game’s ever-growing popularity both owe a debt of gratitude to this book, which established some of the fundamental principles of how we think about the game today."
— Eric Eager, vice president of research and development at SumerSports, formerly at Pro Football Focus
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword by Aaron Schatz
Preface by John Thorn and Pete Palmer
Part One
1 A Flying Wedge into the Future
2 How Football Got That Way
3 What’s Wrong with Traditional Pro Football Statistics?
4 Punch, Zip, Whirr . . . Touchdown!
5 Looking for a Winning Situation
6 Driving for Glory
7 You Can Get There from Here
Part Two
8 The Joy of Sacks, and Other Mistakes
9 Special Teams
10 Kicking Up a Storm
11 The Glory, the Blame, and the Ratings
12 The Running Game
13 Opus for the Unsung
14 Three Minutes to Fat Lady
15 Profile of a Winner
Part Three
16 The Draft Dodge
17 Wanna Bet?
18 The Theory of Relativity
19 Great Performances
20 Rumblings in the Pantheon
Part Four
The Tables
REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE
If you are a student who cannot use this book in printed form, BiblioVault may be able to supply you
with an electronic file for alternative access.
Please have the accessibility coordinator at your school fill out this form.
The Hidden Game of Football: A Revolutionary Approach to the Game and Its Statistics
by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn foreword by Aaron Schatz
University of Chicago Press, 2023 Paper: 978-0-226-82586-1 eISBN: 978-0-226-82587-8
The 1988 cult classic behind football’s data analytics revolution, now back in print with a new foreword and preface.
Data analytics have revolutionized football. With play sheets informed by advanced statistical analysis, today’s coaches pass more, kick less, and go for more two-point or fourth-down conversions than ever before. In 1988, sportswriters Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn proposed just this style of play in The Hidden Game of Football, but at the time baffled readers scoffed at such a heartless approach to the game. Football was the ultimate team sport and unlike baseball could not be reduced to pure probabilities. Nevertheless, the book developed a cult following among analysts who, inspired by its unorthodox methods, went on to develop the core metrics of football analytics used today: win probability, expected points, QBR, and more. With a new preface by Thorn and Palmer and a new foreword by Football Outsiders’s Aaron Schatz, The Hidden Game of Football remains an essential resource for armchair coaches, fantasy managers, and fans of all stripes.
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Bob Carroll (1936–2009) was founder and executive director of the Professional Football Researchers Association and the author of more than twenty books, including When the Grass Was Real: Unitas, Brown, Lombardi, Sayers, Butkus, Namath, and All the Rest: The Best Ten Years of Pro Football. Pete Palmer is a statistician, baseball analyst, and former consultant to Sports Information Center. John Thorn has been the official historian for Major League Baseball since 2011. Together Thorn and Palmer were lead authors of The Hidden Game of Baseball: A Revolutionary Approach to Baseball and Its Statistics, also published by the University of Chicago Press.
REVIEWS
"The book that started it all. A visionary approach to football two decades ahead of its time.”
— Brian Burke, ESPN sports data scientist, creator of expected points added, win probability, win rates
"Everyone who reads this seminal classic will see the game differently. The concepts are as important for football coaching and scouting veterans as they are for aspiring analysts."
— Patrick Ward & Brian Eayrs, Seattle Seahawks research and analytics
"Before this book, zero teams made the ‘correct’ choice to go for it on fourth down most of the time. Now, roughly half the league does. Football’s significant shift toward analytics and the game’s ever-growing popularity both owe a debt of gratitude to this book, which established some of the fundamental principles of how we think about the game today."
— Eric Eager, vice president of research and development at SumerSports, formerly at Pro Football Focus
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword by Aaron Schatz
Preface by John Thorn and Pete Palmer
Part One
1 A Flying Wedge into the Future
2 How Football Got That Way
3 What’s Wrong with Traditional Pro Football Statistics?
4 Punch, Zip, Whirr . . . Touchdown!
5 Looking for a Winning Situation
6 Driving for Glory
7 You Can Get There from Here
Part Two
8 The Joy of Sacks, and Other Mistakes
9 Special Teams
10 Kicking Up a Storm
11 The Glory, the Blame, and the Ratings
12 The Running Game
13 Opus for the Unsung
14 Three Minutes to Fat Lady
15 Profile of a Winner
Part Three
16 The Draft Dodge
17 Wanna Bet?
18 The Theory of Relativity
19 Great Performances
20 Rumblings in the Pantheon
Part Four
The Tables
REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE
If you are a student who cannot use this book in printed form, BiblioVault may be able to supply you
with an electronic file for alternative access.
Please have the accessibility coordinator at your school fill out this form.
It can take 2-3 weeks for requests to be filled.
ABOUT THIS BOOK | AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY | REVIEWS | TOC | REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE