Casanova's Lottery: The History of a Revolutionary Game of Chance
by Stephen M. Stigler
University of Chicago Press, 2022 Cloth: 978-0-226-82077-4 | Paper: 978-0-226-82079-8 | eISBN: 978-0-226-82078-1 Library of Congress Classification HG6195.S75 2022 Dewey Decimal Classification 795.380944
ABOUT THIS BOOK | AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY | REVIEWS | TOC | REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE
ABOUT THIS BOOK The fascinating story of an important lottery that flourished in France from 1757 to 1836 and its role in transforming our understanding of the nature of risk.
In the 1750s, at the urging of famed adventurer Giacomo Casanova, the French state began to embrace risk in adopting a new Loterie. The prize amounts paid varied, depending on the number of tickets bought and the amount of the bet, as determined by each individual bettor. The state could lose money on any individual Loterie drawing while being statistically guaranteed to come out on top in the long run. In adopting this framework, the French state took on risk in a way no other has, before or after. At each drawing the state was at risk of losing a large amount; what is more, that risk was precisely calculable, generally well understood, and yet taken on by the state with little more than a mathematical theory to protect it.
Stephen M. Stigler follows the Loterie from its curious inception through its hiatus during the French Revolution, its renewal and expansion in 1797, and finally to its suppression in 1836, examining throughout the wider question of how members of the public came to trust in new financial technologies and believe in their value. Drawing from an extensive collection of rare ephemera, Stigler pieces together the Loterie’s remarkable inner workings, as well as its implications for the nature of risk and the role of lotteries in social life over the period 1700–1950.
Both a fun read and fodder for many fields, Casanova's Lottery shines new light on the conscious introduction of risk into the management of a nation-state and the rationality of playing unfair games.
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Stephen M. Stigler is the Ernest DeWitt Burton Distinguished Service Professor in the Department of Statistics and the College at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books, including The History of Statistics and The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom.
REVIEWS
"Stigler draws on a particularly fascinating historical case study, about which he has incredibly deep knowledge and which he is able to transmit in meticulous detail and in delightfully lucid prose. The writing is absolutely clear and readable—a wonderful example of the possibility of writing about serious scholarly matters in a way that invites the reader along and allows the reader to share in the author's expertise, rather than either excluding the non-expert reader or talking down. It's remarkable how accessible Stigler makes the technical material on probability and statistics, again without any simplifications that would take away from the seriousness of the treatment. This is truly an unusually well-written book."
— Justin E. H. Smith, author of The Internet Is Not What You Think It Is
"Stigler is unrivaled in his ability to elaborate subtle points of probability and statistics for broad audiences and to integrate discussion of these technical concepts with lively narrative and historical analysis. He masterfully integrates the practicalities of betting strategy and lottery administration with higher-level intellectual debates about risk, probability, and the ethics of gambling. Entertaining and highly informative."
— William Deringer, author of Calculated Values: Finance, Politics, and the Quantitative Age
“I recommend Stigler’s new book Casanova’s Lottery to anyone interested in the history, economics, ethics, and politics of modern-day lotteries. Among other things, Stigler not only traces the history of the French Loterie, the first large-scale commercial lottery in history, he also examines the mathematics of risk, including the epic back-and-forth debate over the ‘maturity of chances,’ or so-called gambler’s fallacy, and the politics of legalized gambling generally.”
— Prior Probability
“In 1758, the French state launched an unusual lottery suggested by famed Italian gambler Giacomo Casanova. It lasted until 1836, with a three-year gap during the French Revolution, providing 4% of national income at its peak. However, every time it was drawn, the state was at risk of losing a large amount, with ‘little more than a mathematical theory to protect it,’ writes statistician Stigler as he tells the lottery’s story for the first time.”
— Nature
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
One
Casanova
Two
The Genoese Lottery
Three
The Establishment of the Loterie
Four
Problems and Adjustments in the Early Drawings
Five
Antoine Blanquet and the Great Expansion of 1776
Six
The Introduction of Bonus Numbers: Les Primes Gratuites
Seven
The Spread of the Loterie in Europe
Eight
Data Security: The Design of the Tickets
Nine
The Loterie and the Revolution
Ten
Was the Loterie Fair?
Eleven
Dreams and Astrology: The Bettors and the Loterie
Twelve
The Number 45 and the Maturity of Chances
Thirteen
How Much Did They Bet, and Where?
Fourteen
Muskets, Fine-Tuned Risk, and Voltaire
Fifteen
The Loterie in Textbooks and Manuals
Sixteen
The Suppression of the Loterie in 1836
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix 1. Probability
Appendix 2. Laplace’s Lottery Theorem
References
Index
REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE
If you are a student who cannot use this book in printed form, BiblioVault may be able to supply you
with an electronic file for alternative access.
Please have the accessibility coordinator at your school fill out this form.
Casanova's Lottery: The History of a Revolutionary Game of Chance
by Stephen M. Stigler
University of Chicago Press, 2022 Cloth: 978-0-226-82077-4 Paper: 978-0-226-82079-8 eISBN: 978-0-226-82078-1
The fascinating story of an important lottery that flourished in France from 1757 to 1836 and its role in transforming our understanding of the nature of risk.
In the 1750s, at the urging of famed adventurer Giacomo Casanova, the French state began to embrace risk in adopting a new Loterie. The prize amounts paid varied, depending on the number of tickets bought and the amount of the bet, as determined by each individual bettor. The state could lose money on any individual Loterie drawing while being statistically guaranteed to come out on top in the long run. In adopting this framework, the French state took on risk in a way no other has, before or after. At each drawing the state was at risk of losing a large amount; what is more, that risk was precisely calculable, generally well understood, and yet taken on by the state with little more than a mathematical theory to protect it.
Stephen M. Stigler follows the Loterie from its curious inception through its hiatus during the French Revolution, its renewal and expansion in 1797, and finally to its suppression in 1836, examining throughout the wider question of how members of the public came to trust in new financial technologies and believe in their value. Drawing from an extensive collection of rare ephemera, Stigler pieces together the Loterie’s remarkable inner workings, as well as its implications for the nature of risk and the role of lotteries in social life over the period 1700–1950.
Both a fun read and fodder for many fields, Casanova's Lottery shines new light on the conscious introduction of risk into the management of a nation-state and the rationality of playing unfair games.
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Stephen M. Stigler is the Ernest DeWitt Burton Distinguished Service Professor in the Department of Statistics and the College at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books, including The History of Statistics and The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom.
REVIEWS
"Stigler draws on a particularly fascinating historical case study, about which he has incredibly deep knowledge and which he is able to transmit in meticulous detail and in delightfully lucid prose. The writing is absolutely clear and readable—a wonderful example of the possibility of writing about serious scholarly matters in a way that invites the reader along and allows the reader to share in the author's expertise, rather than either excluding the non-expert reader or talking down. It's remarkable how accessible Stigler makes the technical material on probability and statistics, again without any simplifications that would take away from the seriousness of the treatment. This is truly an unusually well-written book."
— Justin E. H. Smith, author of The Internet Is Not What You Think It Is
"Stigler is unrivaled in his ability to elaborate subtle points of probability and statistics for broad audiences and to integrate discussion of these technical concepts with lively narrative and historical analysis. He masterfully integrates the practicalities of betting strategy and lottery administration with higher-level intellectual debates about risk, probability, and the ethics of gambling. Entertaining and highly informative."
— William Deringer, author of Calculated Values: Finance, Politics, and the Quantitative Age
“I recommend Stigler’s new book Casanova’s Lottery to anyone interested in the history, economics, ethics, and politics of modern-day lotteries. Among other things, Stigler not only traces the history of the French Loterie, the first large-scale commercial lottery in history, he also examines the mathematics of risk, including the epic back-and-forth debate over the ‘maturity of chances,’ or so-called gambler’s fallacy, and the politics of legalized gambling generally.”
— Prior Probability
“In 1758, the French state launched an unusual lottery suggested by famed Italian gambler Giacomo Casanova. It lasted until 1836, with a three-year gap during the French Revolution, providing 4% of national income at its peak. However, every time it was drawn, the state was at risk of losing a large amount, with ‘little more than a mathematical theory to protect it,’ writes statistician Stigler as he tells the lottery’s story for the first time.”
— Nature
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
One
Casanova
Two
The Genoese Lottery
Three
The Establishment of the Loterie
Four
Problems and Adjustments in the Early Drawings
Five
Antoine Blanquet and the Great Expansion of 1776
Six
The Introduction of Bonus Numbers: Les Primes Gratuites
Seven
The Spread of the Loterie in Europe
Eight
Data Security: The Design of the Tickets
Nine
The Loterie and the Revolution
Ten
Was the Loterie Fair?
Eleven
Dreams and Astrology: The Bettors and the Loterie
Twelve
The Number 45 and the Maturity of Chances
Thirteen
How Much Did They Bet, and Where?
Fourteen
Muskets, Fine-Tuned Risk, and Voltaire
Fifteen
The Loterie in Textbooks and Manuals
Sixteen
The Suppression of the Loterie in 1836
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix 1. Probability
Appendix 2. Laplace’s Lottery Theorem
References
Index
REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE
If you are a student who cannot use this book in printed form, BiblioVault may be able to supply you
with an electronic file for alternative access.
Please have the accessibility coordinator at your school fill out this form.
It can take 2-3 weeks for requests to be filled.
ABOUT THIS BOOK | AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY | REVIEWS | TOC | REQUEST ACCESSIBLE FILE